GLP-1 Weight Loss Projection
See what a realistic 12-month weight loss timeline looks like on semaglutide or tirzepatide. The curves come from Phase 3 clinical trials — not marketing math.
lbs
Based on Phase 3 trial averages (15% at 12 months)
Projected 12-month loss
33.0lbs
Weight at month 12
187lbs
A licensed Pallas provider can review your health history and confirm whether Semaglutide is the right fit. Plans start at $189/mo for the first month.
See if you qualifyProjections are based on average results from STEP 1 (semaglutide) and SURMOUNT-1 (tirzepatide) Phase 3 trials. Individual results vary based on starting weight, adherence, dose, and lifestyle factors.
Where the numbers come from
The projection uses average total-body-weight loss from two landmark Phase 3 trials. STEP 1 followed 1,961 adults on semaglutide 2.4mg weekly for 68 weeks — mean loss 14.9%. SURMOUNT-1 followed 2,539 adults on tirzepatide 15mg weekly for 72 weeks — mean loss 20.9% at the highest dose. Both trials combined medication with modest lifestyle counseling. The lifestyle-only comparator arms lost about 3–5% in the same time.
The shape of the curve
Weight loss on GLP-1 medications is not linear. Most people lose the fastest in months 1–4 as appetite suppression and changes in food preference take effect, then the rate slows through months 5–9, and plateaus approaching month 12 as the body reaches a new metabolic set point. The model here approximates this with an exponential decay toward a 12-month target, matching the published trial curves.
How Pallas compares
Pallas providers can prescribe both compounded semaglutide and tirzepatide (subject to current regulatory availability) plus brand-name Wegovy, Ozempic, Zepbound, and Mounjaro when indicated. Pricing starts at $189 for the first month, then $299 monthly for compounded plans — all-inclusive of the provider visit, medication, titration adjustments, ongoing messaging support, and free shipping. See if you qualify by completing the 2-minute intake.
Important caveats
- These are trial averages — individual results vary by starting weight, adherence, dose escalation, and lifestyle factors.
- Most weight loss is regained within a year of stopping, per the STEP 4 extension trial. Treatment is typically long-term.
- Side effects (nausea, constipation) are most common in the first 4–8 weeks and typically resolve with dose titration.
- GLP-1 medications are not appropriate for everyone. A licensed provider reviews your health history before prescribing.
Frequently asked questions
How much weight can I expect to lose on semaglutide?+
In the STEP 1 trial, adults taking semaglutide 2.4mg weekly lost an average of 14.9% of their body weight at 68 weeks, compared to 2.4% on placebo — both groups also received lifestyle counseling. For a 220 lb starting weight, that's roughly 33 lbs of total loss, with the fastest drop in months 1–4 and continued loss through month 12.
How much weight can I expect to lose on tirzepatide?+
In the SURMOUNT-1 trial, adults taking tirzepatide 15mg weekly lost an average of 20.9% of their body weight at 72 weeks. Lower doses produced proportionally less loss: 15% at 5mg, 19.5% at 10mg. Tirzepatide is the most effective GLP-1/GIP agonist currently available.
Why does the curve flatten toward month 12?+
Most weight loss on GLP-1 medications happens in the first 4–6 months as appetite suppression and altered food preferences kick in. Loss then slows as the body adapts metabolically and individuals approach their new set point. This plateau shape is consistent across trials.
What happens if I stop the medication?+
The STEP 4 extension trial showed that about two-thirds of weight lost is regained within a year of stopping semaglutide. GLP-1 medications are most effective as long-term treatments, similar to medications for blood pressure or cholesterol. Discuss duration and maintenance strategy with your provider.
Is this projection accurate for my specific situation?+
These are trial averages. Individual results vary significantly based on starting weight, adherence, titration speed, diet quality, activity level, sleep, stress, and underlying metabolic factors. Use this as a rough planning tool — not a guarantee.
Does Pallas prescribe both semaglutide and tirzepatide?+
Yes. Pallas providers can prescribe both compounded semaglutide and tirzepatide (subject to current regulatory availability) as well as brand-name Wegovy, Ozempic, Zepbound, and Mounjaro. Your provider recommends the option that best fits your goals, history, and budget.